The US-Kraine Summit has recently been held in Riyadh and led to more ambitious than the expected ceasefire proposals. “The ball is now in Russia’s camp” has become an element of American language on this matter. Meanwhile, Europe seems to accelerate its recovery in military hand in a still tense geopolitical context.
A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is waiting for
The Riyadh Summit, led by Marco Rubie, meant a turning point in peace negotiations in Ukraine. Unlike pessimistic expectations, the discussion paved the way for a potential ceasefire that would go In addition to the initial requests ZelskyIncluding not only airspace, but also land fighting.
The reaction of Vladimir Putin was fast. He appeared in military uniform, spoke about the rediscovery of the Koursk region, and at the same time represented the conditions for this ceasefire that corresponds to and Russian overall victory, What he has not won in the field.
In principle, he asked to be all the conditions that led to war that would mean that Russia would happen to be connected to the attached data but not completely conquered, Fall of the Kiev regime and a decline in NATO.
This situation shows that unlike certain analyzes, Trump did not give up Putin. The negotiations seem to be blocked on the territorial question, the Americans who seemed to leave Russia only what they already hold, without further concessions.
Europe, herself in the face of Putin Russia
Meanwhile, Europe does not slow down its increase in military power. On the contrary, we observe and Growing will of strategic autonomy Which now goes beyond the simple opposition to Russia, also includes a form of resistance to American ambitions in Greenland and Canada.
Analyzes circulate on the overall military power of Europe, which, if unified, would potentially exceed the power of the United States in ground forces. This dynamics is powered by several factors:
- AND growing distrust of Trump’s policyespecially after his statements about the possible annexation of Greenland and Canada;
- L ‘French strategic interest Historically favorable to independent Europe;
- The need for Emmanuel Macron Get his coat of arms after his election difficulties.
This European “momentum” is not new. Since the first Presidency of Trump, the media campaign had three threatening “wolves”: China, Russia and the United States. It was the origin and Nationalism that was also defined against America.
European shortcomings of the project
Despite this aspiration for strategic autonomy faces Europe Democratic fragility main. The situation in Romania is symptomatic: the ban Callin Georgescu, which introduces itself in the elections, follows a similar measure against its replacement, reveals a deep democratic crisis.
These measures taken in the name of the fight against Russian intervention, paradoxically Nourish instability that they claim to fight. As Vance’s JD stressed, “If your democracy may be at risk of a small intervention such as the purchase of a candidate, you have an internal problem by detecting your ruling class. »»
This situation illustrates internal error Who could prove to be fatal in the case of conflict: when the population prefers their country to lose war if it allows you to get rid of their elites than patriotic to support the victory that would maintain the same elites in power.
Against Russia, towards the power of Europe?
The idea of power, capable of competing with the United States and Russia, is attractive. Would offer many benefits:
- AND A more advantageous economic positionbecause superpowers attract talents and capital;
- AND The development of French innovation on a continental scale;
- FROM equipment which would return more to France;
However, it seems that the emergence of such force is unlikely without deep transformation. Europe is already largely federal The only currency AND Most of their rights from the European Commission.
Towards the inevitable conflict?
The most disturbing scenario would be a direct confrontation scenario between Europe and Russia in Ukraine, especially if the United States decided to withdraw from the game or even expensive war war. Trigger this inner revolution in Europe.
Even more disturbing, even a European victory against Russia could lead to The following conflict with the United Statesespecially around the question Greenland and Canada. The most likely result would be a form “Vassalization” of Europe by the United States.
Optimistic alternative, which is the emergence of “Western strength with two heads” where Europe and the United States would coexist as equal partners, Unfortunately, it seems unrealistic in the current context.
The path to power and sovereign Europe exists, but it is dotted with pitfalls, which could, paradoxically, increased dependence on the United States rather than on real emancipation. Especially because the United States is a technologically distanced Europe, especially on bitcoins.
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Every day I try to enrich my knowledge of this revolution that will allow humanity to proceed in its conquest.
Renunciation
The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.
