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Bitcoin has been caught over the past few weeks. 22 % decrease from its historical peak to $ 109,000, in mid -January, is questioned with doubts. Is it the end of the quadrennial cycle, but anchored in the DNA of the market crypto or a simple turbulence before the new flight? Analysts are based on the second option, but the nuances deserve to be dug.
Shock, not collapse
The numbers are scary, but the story assures. Bitcoins have experienced much more violent repairs during their previous cycles. In 2017, a 40 % drop in two weeks did not prevent BTC from multiplying the price of six in one year.
Today, the current decline is part of similar dynamics: “shock”, brutal cleaning to eliminate fragile positions.
Technical indicators, albeit in short -term browsing in the short term, are not surprising the structural trend.
According to Bitfinex, key support remains between $ 72,000 and $ 73,000. Above all, there were quadruple cycles, intermittent by halves (reduced to half of the mining prices), always bull catalysts. The latest, in April 2024, was already powered by the price of 31 %. The mechanics seems intact.
However, the cards are blurred by the new element: institutional acceptance. Bitcoin ETF injected more than $ 125 billion, creating unprecedented structural demand.
These flows, less sensitive to the emotions of specific investors, could alleviate cyclic shocks. “The conventional cycle ceases to exist,” some analysts dare.
Threats for a bitcoin cycle
If a simple setting scenario seems to be trustworthy, the risks persist. Bitcoin is no longer developing in a vacuum.
Its correlation with S&P 500 and treasure yields have strengthened. The stock market accident, supported by commercial voltages or increases in rates, could therefore lead to BTC in its autumn. In mid -March, a reconquered $ 84,000 is not enough to guarantee immunity.
Another thorn: TCAC (composed annual growth rate) after four years of bitcoin has been 8 %, a historical minimum.
For Iliya Kalchev de Nexo, it challenges the sustainability of the quadren cycle. Institutions absorb a growing proportion of offer, perhaps accelerate the maturation of the market … at the expense of its historical shocks.
Finally, geopolitical tremors – trade wars, monetary crisis – could weigh feelings. If investors fled into traditional refuge, bitcoin, still perceived as risky, he could undergo a temporary mistrust. The current “extreme fear”, measured by the feeling of feeling, reflects this nervousness.
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Evariste, fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, has not stopped documenting on this topic. If his first interest focused on trading, he now tries to actively understand all cryptocurrency progress. As an editor, he tries to permanently provide high quality work that reflects the condition of the sector as a whole.
Renunciation
The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.
